WEEKEND, 5/8/16 to 8/8/16

The upcoming weekend sees a number of leagues around the world start their season, and of the 23 leagues covered by the 2016-17 spreadsheets, 16 have action this weekend (English Championship, League One and League Two, Dutch Eredivisie & Eerste Divisie, Belgian First Division, Brazilian Serie A, Danish Superliga, French Ligue 2,  Polish Ekstraklasa, Scottish Premiership, Argentinian Primera, Austrian Bundesliga, Czech Liga, Swiss Super League and American MLS).

With these previews I will attempt to identify teams which are likely to be susceptible for losing goal leads in matches, with one general idea being to lay them when leading by a goal, and then hedging for level profit if and when an equaliser is achieved.  I also like an 'averaging down' approach if a two goal lead develops, so it is important to structure stakes in a way that achieves at least a break-even position, if not profit, if you lay a team at a one goal lead, again with a two goal lead, and a recovery goal is to return to a one goal lead is scored.

There are also many other applications for this data, such as the goal markets, or both teams to score markets, both pre-match and in-play.

The Dutch Eredivisie is a very high scoring league, and in this, PSV look to have solid chances of recovering a deficit against Utrecht, with both their deficit recovery, and Utrecht's lead loss well in excess of both the mean of the leagues covered, and the Eredivisie mean, as seen in the screenshot below which shows part of the spreadsheet for the Eredivisie:-

Utrecht travel to the Philips Stadion, to take on PSV...

In the Dutch Eerste Divisie, another high scoring league, last season both Ajax II and PSV II had excellent goal deficit recovery stats but it is likely that these teams will look fairly different to last season.  They face Emmen and Den Bosch on Monday evening and given the historical ability of these teams to recover deficits, backing them to do so again can be considered, although given the likely player turnover, cautious staking is recommended.

The spreadsheets liked Anderlecht last week to recover a goal deficit at Mouscron-Peruwelz, and they duly did so en route to a 2-1 away victory.  Anderlecht are one of the best teams around Europe for domestic deficit recovery and a similar route can be taken if they fall behind against Kortrijk, although they are understandably heavy favourites.  At home, Anderlecht recovered all four of their goal deficits last season:-

The final example I want to give for this weekend's matches is in Poland, where the Champions, Legia Warsaw take on last season's runners-up, Piast Gliwice.  The spreadsheets are keen on Warsaw for recovering a goal deficit in the big match in the Ekstraklasa, as the adapted screenshot below shows:-

Hopefully this preview has given you some trading entry points this weekend, plus some ideas for trades in the future, as well as giving good examples of the data included in the soccer spreadsheets.  

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